Editorial Yam's Suggestions Totally Inappropriate - Yahoo! 新聞香港

Editorial Yam's Suggestions Totally Inappropriate - Yahoo! 新聞香港

【明報專訊】FORMER Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) chief executive Joseph Yam Chi-kwong has published an academic paper urging the government to take into consideration the public interest and revise the dollar peg by, for instance, widening or removing the trading band. His suggestions have attracted widespread attention, and the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar fluctuated wildly for a while. The market's response to Yam's suggestions is telling Yam clearly that he has acted most inappropriately.

First of all, it is not appropriate for a man of Yam's standing to publish such a paper. For he not only was party to the introduction of the pegged exchange rate system in 1983, but was privy to everything concerned with the peg till 1 October 2009, when he retired as head of the HKMA. And in all those years when he was at the helm, he staunchly defended this exchange rate system, never failing to refute calls for removing or revising the peg. His sudden change of stance is therefore very strange.

Moreover, Yam is currently a consultant to the People's Bank of China. His academic paper thus gave rise to speculations that the central as well as the HKSAR government might be using him to float some ideas to see how the market would react. With Chief Executive-elect Leung Chun-ying, financial secretary John Tsang Chun-wah and current HKMA head Norman Chan Tak-lam declaring categorically one after another that the pegged exchange rate system would remain unchanged, such speculations have been proved totally ungrounded. We cannot but say that Yam's publication of the paper was most inappropriate, for it just served to disturb the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar and throw the financial market into confusion.

Second, Yam's paper was not released to the appropriate parties. Understanding the pegged exchange rate system as he does, if Yam thinks there are problems, he should and is indeed duty-bound to render his advice to the central government, the People's Bank of China, and the HKSAR government. No wild speculations or financial confusion will ensue if he exercises his influence only at the decision-making level. It was unfortunate as well as irrational that, this time, Yam chose to communicate his views to the public instead.

Third, Yam's suggestions were made at an inappropriate time. As the European debt crisis is looming and Hong Kong is to have a new government in about half a month, stability in the financial market is particularly important, or we might have another financial crisis upon us, like the Asian financial crisis happened 15 years ago. Even if Yam was totally well-intentioned, the fact is that his suggestions have left the financial market greatly shaken. We cannot understand why a man so deeply involved in and conversant with the dollar peg should have done such a thing.

The peg is of course no sacred totem. It can and should be discussed and reviewed from time to time, but not publicly. Just imagine what would happen to the financial market if the public were invited to express their opinions on the exchange rate policy in the same way as they are invited to discuss other government policies. Chaos would be the only result. Under normal circumstances, where changes are needed, the government should have already formulated a policy, of which the public and investors will know nothing until the changes are introduced - and only then will the government explain the changes in detail.

明報社評 2012.06.14﹕任志剛倡議改動聯匯 身分時機對象三不當

金管局前任總裁任志剛發表論文，倡議政府視乎公衆利益，改動聯繫匯率，包括聯匯去留或擴闊聯匯可兌換範圍等。這番倡議備受關注，港元匯價一度急劇波動。市場反應告訴任志剛，他這次做法極不恰當。

任志剛這次倡議之不當，首先是他的身分。從1983年香港實施聯繫匯率開始，任志剛已經參與，直至2009年10月1日離任金管局總裁，所有聯繫匯率事宜，都與他有關。在他主持大局期間，一直堅定地捍衛聯匯制度，若有人提出脫鈎或什麼改動聯匯的意見，任志剛都會直斥其非，他現在打倒昨日之我，使人感到突兀。

另外，任志剛是人民銀行顧問，這個身分，使人聯想到中央和特區政府對聯匯是否有些想法，由他放試探氣球，測試市場反應。從候任特首梁振英、財政司長曾俊華和金管局總裁陳德霖先後發言，明確表示聯繫匯率不會改變，足證任志剛測水溫之說，絕無其事，但是事件已經觸動港元匯價，一度擾亂了市場，實屬不當。

任志剛第二個不當是選錯受衆對象。任志剛對聯匯制度的熟悉程度，若他認為有什麼問題，任志剛應該、也有責任提出，包括向中央、人行和特區政府獻策獻計，只要他在決策層面發揮作用，就不會給市場帶來猜測和混亂；但是，現在任志剛將他的倡議，公告周知，太不合情理。

任志剛第三個不當，是時機不當。歐債危機山雨欲來風滿樓之際；另外，本港還有約半個月就政府換屆，特別希望金融市場保持穩定，以免重蹈15年前亞洲金融風暴的覆轍。任志剛的倡議，即使完全出於良好意願，但是客觀效果搖動了金融市場，以他與聯匯的淵源和認識，出現這種情况，使人無法理解。

聯繫匯率並非什麼神聖不可侵犯的圖騰，絕對可以討論，也應該檢討，但是不宜公開討論和檢討。試想想，若政府處理聯匯，與其他政策一樣公開諮詢，金融市場會是怎樣一種景况？答案必然是波動大亂。正常情况下，政府就聯匯制度遇到什麼情况的應對，應該已經制定方案，當市民和投資者知悉改變時，政府已經實施新做法，然後提出詳細解釋而已。